des the holidays, I always enjoy reading each year’s forecasts and predictions for the upcoming year. Gartner, Inc., is highly respected in the technology industry, and has a fairly good record in making summations of what may occur. It has made a press release available which covers its top ten on the hit parade, and can be viewed here.

I just wanted to cover some of the ones I found of interest.

Blogging and community contributors will peak in the first half of 2007. Given the trend in the average life span of a blogger and the current growth rate of blogs, there are already more than 200 million ex-bloggers. Consequently, the peak number of bloggers will be around 100 million at some point in the first half of 2007.

Well I’ll be one of the ones still here in 2007 and beyond.

Vista will be the last major release of Microsoft Windows. The next generation of operating environments will be more modular and will be updated incrementally. The era of monolithic deployments of software releases is nearing an end. Microsoft will be a visible player in this movement, and the result will be more-flexible updates to Windows and a new focus on quality overall.

I have heard and read about this from more than just once source. This very well could be true. I recall reading once that most new technologies (which, for the purpose of my response, I’ll use the railroads and cowboys) lasts only about 20 years. And Microsoft is past its 20 years. You may recall that the railroad barons’ iron fist on transportation lasted about 20 years, and cowboys lasted about 20 years as well, from 1860 to 1880. Time will tell.

By 2010, the average total cost of ownership (TCO) of new PCs will fall by 50%. The growing importance and focus on manageability, automation and reliability will provide a welcome means of differentiating PCs in a market that is increasingly commoditized. Many of the manageability and support tools will be broadly available across multiple vendors. However, vendors that can leverage these tools further and can graduate from claims of “goodness” to concrete examples of cost savings will have a market advantage.

This one is a no brainer. We have seen how inexpensive PCs have become just in the past five years. There is no way that this trend should not continue. Who knows? Maybe we will have be able to connect by Wi-Fi to the Net by 2010.

[tags]gartner, predictions 2007, vista, microsoft, pc, windows, bloggers[/tags]