I have been watching a number of interesting predictions among those in the technology prediction realm and overall, most of it has been fairly spot on. I myself had a run of good luck with the belief that podcast content ought to be spread onto the satellite services such as Sirius or XM. A short time later, Adam Curry made this happen by bringing podcasting to Sirius bandwagon. Coincidence? Most likely, yes. After all, podcasting was red hot at the time and it is possible Adam and I had been on the same page at the time. It’s really hard to say for sure.
Then there was me saying to anyone who would listen that there would come a time when Microsoft would indeed, be offering Linux to the end user. I seem to remember this being around 2005, but lack the “links” to verify this time period for sure. And today, here it is. OK, so it is not “Win-ix”, or some other variant of the same. It’s just cooperation and sales support between two companies with similar goals. Regardless, it’s interesting how these types of things can be predicted by anyone with the proper mindset. So how do people do it? It’s actually pretty easy.
The first step is to accept the illogical as “possible”. Unfortunately, this is going to be an uphill battle as our core senses are screaming “where is the viewable benefit?” and “how could this actually happen?” But it was this kind of viewpoint that allowed virtual nobodies to define the software industry with existing hardware giants standing there slack-jawed. After all, there is no real money in this “software stuff”, right IBM? So the key to predicting the future of a particular field of technology is to in fact, explore the unlikely as far as you possibly can with open minds and attentive eyes. Stop relying exclusively on common sense and consider taking a walk on the wild side whenever you can.
Now some will continue to respectfully disagree with many of my half-baked predictions. After all, some of them have been off. But I would also point out that an equal number of them have been fairly spot on as well. You have to remember that when I say things like “virtualization is the next big thing”, it would indicate that I may very well know something that allows me to feel fairly comfortable with that statement.
Look at it this way, it’s a simple matter of dollars and “sense” (cents). Why in the heck would you limit your reach when you can stretch into other platforms and make even more money? The desire to use Apple apps on Windows and vice versa does actually exist, even if not with you specially. I know this, it’s a fact, I have seen ongoing evidence of it growing everyday for over two years now.
With that said, I am willing to say that we may see a toss up with virtualization and thin clients; considering the point from a recent commenter regarding the value of thin clients. But for the home and small office user, I stand firm in believing that virtualization will indeed become king. And of course, thin clients will be king in the corporate space I am sure.
Think I am nuts? Fair enough, happy to consider counterpoints as always.
[tags]prediction,guesses,wackos,thin clients, virtualization,office,home,corporate users[/tags]