For those of you good at mathematics, you may want to head over to the Clay Mathematics Institute’s Millennium Problem Page. The institute has 7 very tough math problems and is offering 1 million dollars as a prize for each of the problems. I first heard of these 7 problems while reading “In with the New Scientists: Our Predictions for 2011“.
The article is using something called “scientometrics” to make predictions, based on probability, on what will occur in 2011. Based on the calculations they use to examine 1 of these 7 problems, more specifically “P versus NP“, the solution is not likely any time this year.
They arrive at this conclusion by comparing this problem to 26 other problems in mathematical history. They look at when the problem was first formulated and how long it took for a valid solution to emerge. According to the article, solving these types of problems in under 40 years only occurs 22% of the time and that 50% of these type of problems are solved at the age of 53 years. For “P versus NP” that 50% chance would be in 2024. If it is solved this year, it will have been solved quicker than 81% of the problems it was compared to.
All of that considered, I would think the prize money is pretty secure but it sure would be nice to see some one prove them wrong. I also have to wonder if the advent of the Internet is going to help skew the problem solving time. Granted, computers can not be easily applied to these problems. However, information sharing and knowledge sharing has certainly improved in the timespan that many of the compared problems were solved in.
Well, get your pencil and scratch pad out and get busy, I am off to look for my slide rule. Thanks for reading and comments are welcome.